Gary Johnson Grassroots Blog

Showing posts with label Barack Obama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Barack Obama. Show all posts

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Gary Johnson At 3% In Final CNN/ORC National Poll

Hot off the interwebz, the latest CNN/ORC Poll has Gary Johnson at 3% among registered voters and 2% among likely voters.

Now while this would fall short of the 5% that the former New Mexico Governor is hoping for, if it holds it would mean somewhere north of 2.5 million votes for the Libertarian Party candidate.

Sadly, because of the media blackout on the Johnson campaign, most Americans will probably hear Gary Johnson's name for the first time on election night when the results are tallied. Little did they know that there was an actual fiscally conservative, socially tolerant candidate on the ballot that will turn out to be the X Factor in the election.

Q Suppose that the Presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party's candidate, Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian party candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green party candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for? (IF UNSURE) As of today, who do you lean more toward? (RANDOM ORDER)




Via Memeorandum

Gary Johnson At 2% In NewsmaxZogby US Nationwide Tracking Poll

JZ Analytics 11/1-11/3

Mitt Romney......... 47%
Barack Obama.... 45%
Gary Johnson....... 2%
Jill Stein............. 1%
Virgil Goode...... <1%


If this is any barometer of how well Gary Johnson finishes, 2% based on 2008 turnout equates to roughly 2,626,000 votes.

Not bad for a candidate running on a shoestring with scant coverage from the lamestream mediots.

Saturday, November 3, 2012

Gary Johnson At 5% In CNN/ORC Ohio Poll

With only four days to go before the election, Gary Johnson is still polling well, at 5%, in the Buckeye State according to the latest CNN/ORC Poll.

Barack Obama..... 47%
Mitt Romney...... 44%
Gary Johnson...... 5%
Jill Stein........ 1%
Virgil Goode..... <1%


With over 5.7 million votes cast in the 2008 election, if this trend continues Governor Johnson has a a chance to win 286,000 votes if he stays at this level of support. Also, given his polling numbers across the nation, he should shatter the highest vote total received in a Presidential election by a Libertarian Party candidate which was 921,128 in 1980 by then candidate Ed Clark.

We must do our best in these last few days to get the word out about Gary Johnson and push him over the 5% mark nationally.

Via Memeorandum

Friday, November 2, 2012

Washington Times Opinion - A Suggestion For Republicans: Consider Gary Johnson

Washington Times
This is not an election of Romney vs. Obama. This is anti-Obama vs. anti-Romney. No one really likes either candidate. No one is inspired by either of them. As a Republican, clearly Obama is not on your team, but neither is Romney. Certainly not our team leader.

Both Romney and Obama will drive full speed towards the cliff. The only difference is Obama will drive a little faster, but it's a negligible difference, and certainly not one worth spending energy on.

Our only hope to prevent a bleak dystopian scenario from unfolding is to send a powerful NO!! in the face of the forces that are pushing us there.

Fortunately, we do have a Presidential Candidate running that actually stands for limited government principles: Gary Johnson. And he's got a track record to back it up.

As a two term Governor of New Mexico, Gary Johnson vetoed 750 bills, which was about 1/3rd of all bills requiring his signature. He held the line on preventing his legislature's intentions for government's size, reach, and cost to grow, and that's how he was able to cut taxes 14 times while leaving New Mexico with a balanced budget and a healthy growing economy.

Most importantly, Gary Johnson is ideologically principled to protecting your life and liberty. Gary Johnson stands for everything the Tea Party represents. He is the ideal Tea Party candidate. His slogan is Live Free. He doesn't just speak it, he's backs it up, and he's taken some very bold stands that has caused him to be pushed out of the Republican Party by the mainstream establishment that has been running things.

It is that same mainstream establishment that led the Republican Party to its death in 2008. It was the Republican fight AGAINST the mainstream establishment that brought the wave of excitement to sweep up in 2010. It is that entrenched mainstream establishment that has to go if our country has any chance. Gary Johnson is the vehicle to help you accomplish that.
Read the rest here.

Gary Johnson At 5% In New CNN/ORC Colorado Poll

With less than a week before the election, Gary Johnson is still holding his own in Colorado in the latest CNN/ORC Poll.

Think about this for a moment, in 2008 almost 2.3 million people went to the polls in The Centennial State and if Governor Johnson pulls 4% he will come close to the 92,000 vote mark, having received nearly 53,000 more votes there than all of the 2008 3rd party candidates combined.

Not too shabby.

Q Suppose that the Presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party's candidate, Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian party candidate, Jill Stein as the Green party candidate and Virgil Goode as the Constitution Party candidate who would you be more likely to vote for? - (IF UNSURE) As of today, who do you lean more toward? (RANDOM ORDER)


* less than 1%

Monday, October 29, 2012

Gary Johnson At 5% In Latest Albuquerque Journal New Mexico Poll

Albuquerque Journal
President Barack Obama has held on to his lead over Republican Mitt Romney in the presidential contest in New Mexico, running 9 points ahead of the former Massachusetts governor in a Journal Poll concluded 12 days before the Nov. 6 election.

The Democratic president had 50 percent support in the statewide survey of likely voters and those who had already voted, compared with 41 percent backing Romney.

Obama picked up 1 percentage point and Romney gained 2 points in the Oct. 23-25 Journal Poll, compared with the Journal Poll conducted Oct. 9-11.

Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson had support of 5 percent of likely New Mexico voters in the latest Journal Poll, compared with 6 percent in the previous survey.

Johnson factor

Johnson, who was a Republican during his two terms as governor of New Mexico from 1995 to 2003, took slightly more support from Republicans – 5 percent of whom said they would vote for him – than from Democrats, 2 percent of whom expressed support for him in the Journal Poll.

Independent voters were Johnson’s largest bloc of support, with 12 percent of these voters saying they preferred him over Romney or Obama.

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Gary Johnson At 3% In Latest CNN/ORC Florida Poll

CNN/ORC Poll

Q Suppose that the Presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party's candidate, Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian party candidate, Jill Stein as the Green party candidate and Virgil Goode as the Constitution Party candidate who would you be more likely to vote for? - (IF UNSURE) As of today, who do you lean more toward? (RANDOM ORDER)


* less than 1%

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Gary Johnson At 3% In Arizona In New Behavior Research Center/Rocky Mountain Poll

In yet another state, Gary Johnson is playing a major role in the outcome in the Presidential race. With their respective bases all but sewn up, Obama and Romney are needing the independent vote but in this current Arizona poll, Governor Johnson is polling at 7%, with 18% still undecided.

This poll shows that there is even more room for Gary Johnson to grow his vote total in the Grand Canyon State as a demographic groups show at least 10% are still undecided.

Given the amount of media that both Obama and Romney receive, for this many people to have not made up there minds with less than 30 days until the election, Gov Johnson could win some of these votes.

Behavior Research Center/Rocky Mountain Poll

Q If the election for President of the United States were being held today and the candidates were (ROTATE SEQUENCE) Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, Green Party Jill Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson which one would you vote for?



Monday, October 8, 2012

Latest PPP Virginia Poll Has Gary Johnson At 4%

Well the Johnson campaign has to be happy about this, a 2% jump in the latest PPP Virginia poll from just two weeks ago.

I know I'm giddy.

Q If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, Libertarian Gary Johnson,
Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode, and
Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who would
you vote for?


Barack Obama..... 48%
Mitt Romney...... 44%
Gary Johnson...... 4%
Virgil Goode...... 1%
Jill Stein........ 0%
Undecided......... 2%

But the news is even better when you look at the crosstabs. Governor Johnson is up in every polling subgroup with significant movement among some. And yes, +4% in only two weeks, at this late stage in the race, for a 3rd party candidate with little exposure is significant.

Very liberal +4
Somewhat liberal +3
Moderate +1
Somewhat conservative +3
Very conservative +4

Women +4
Men +1

Democrat +4
Republican +1
Independent +4

White +3
African American +1
Other +3

18-29 +4
30-45 +4
45-65 +2
Over 65 +1

I realize it is only one state but what this proves is that Gary Johnson is getting his message out there and the electorate is responding positively. Just imagine where his national poll numbers would be if the lamestream mediots gave him equal time or if he was allowed to debate against Obamney.

Those of us who support Gary Johnson have less than 30 days to get the word out. Anything can happen between now and November 6; it will only take one game changing event and Gary Johnson could shock the world.

Monday, October 1, 2012

Gary Johnson Steady At 4% In Latest CNN National Poll

Just in from CNN is the latest CNN/ORC national poll where Gary Johnson is now polling at 4% among likely voters nationwide.

Q Suppose that the Presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party's candidate, Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian party candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green party candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for? (RANDOM ORDER)




A lot to like here for the Johnson campaign who gained a 1% increase among likely voters from the CNN/ORC poll earlier this month.

Overall he is up with Liberals (+5%), Democrats(+1%) and Independents (+1%), while the only downturn is among Moderates (-1%). He remains steady among Republicans and Conservatives.

[The real head scratcher in all the numbers is that Governor Johnson is polling higher than Green Party candidate Jill Stein with Liberals (5% versus 3%) while she is polling better among likely GOP voters (3% versus 2%) than the fiscally conservative former New Mexico Governor. You would think it would be the other way around.]

This poll shows that without a doubt, Gary Johnson's message is getting out there and it is being well received. At a point when 3rd party candidates start to trail off, Governor Johnson is actually gaining ground.

Just imagine where he would be right now if the mediots didn't black him out and he was in the debates. There is no doubt in my mind that if people had a chance to hear his message sooner, he would would be up in the 15-20% range right now, with a chance to win in the final month.

But there is no use dwelling in the past. The campaign must push forward and do the best that it can in the time remaining.

Via Memeorandum

Friday, September 28, 2012

Stunner - Gary Johnson At 10.6 % In Gravis Marketing Ohio Poll

You read that right, Gary Johnson is at 10.6% in the latest Gravis Marketing/Capitol Correspondent Ohio Poll. Among likely Ohio voters he is up over 6% from the last Gravis poll just 2 weeks ago.

This is stunning news since the conventional wisdom is that 3rd party candidates start to sink in the polls as the election draws closer.

Q If the Presidential election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney and Libertarian Gary Johnson, whom? would you vote?

Obama...........44.5%
Romney..........37.8%
Johnson..........10.6%
Other/Unsure....7.1%

Certainly, this poll is going to cause some sleepless nights for the Romney campaign, that's for sure. Not only is Governor Johnson over 10% in a key swing state but his inclusion in the poll dropped the former Massachusetts Governor from a deficit of less than 1%, in a head-to-head matchup against the President, to a nearly 7% gap.

The American people are starting to wake up, especially the fiscally conservative, pro-liberty Republicans. They are realizing that Milquetoast Mitt isn't much different on most policy than Obama and they see Gary Johnson as a legitimate third option.

So kudos to you Gary Johnson; your message is getting out and the people are hearing it loud and clear.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Gary Johnson, The Lesser Of Two Goods

There has been a lot of talk by Romney supporters that if you are not 80%, or even 50%, on board with their candidate that you should vote for their guy because he is the "lesser of two evils" and will do less harm to our nation than the current POTUS. But if you vote for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, you are splitting the vote and will be responsible for getting Obama re-elected.

Not only does this show that they themselves have little faith in their candidate's ability to seal the deal on his own, but that they have little faith in his policies as well.

In other words, what I am hearing them saying is, "Vote for Romney because he sucks less than Obama."

Now there's a winning campaign slogan if I ever heard one.

Well, to many liberty minded individuals who don't buy this line of bull, Ron Paul is the gold standard of the liberty movement. In our lifetime there has been very few politicians, if any, who have had absolute fidelity to their Constitutional principles like Dr Paul.

But Ron Paul is not going to be President; the GOP Primaries settled that and with his retiring from the House and advanced age, this was his last go-around.

Gary Johnson on the other hand, is still in the race and as of this writing is on the ballot in 47 states and is looking like he will be on Pennsylvania's ballot, making it 48 states (he'll be excluded in Oklahoma and in all probability Michigan).

As his record as a two term Governor of New Mexico and his stated positions show, Gary Johnson is a legitimate liberty candidate.

Sure you can make the case, and many do, that Gary Johnson is lacking in libertarian bona fides, that his positions on humanitarian intervention and Israel are cause for concern and that he would govern on cost/benefit analysis rather than true libertarian principles.

Fair points all, but in the grand scheme of things he is still a fiscal conservative that would cut spending by 43%, submit a balanced budget in his first term, end the fed and be an overall thorn in the side of Leviathan.

President Gary Johnson would end our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan and would not put US troops in foreign wars unless duly authorized by Congress.

He would also put an end to the war on Americans by ending the Drug War while repealing both the PATRIOT Act and NDAA as well as limit the assault on our civil liberties.

Unlike both Obama and Romney he does not support government run, socialized medicine either.

As you can see, Gary Johnson may not quite be Ron Paul, but he's close enough and would be a far better choice for America than his two major party opponents.

With this in mind, the next time someone tells you that you are wasting you vote on Gary Johnson and that you need to vote for the "lesser of two evils", you can let them know that they are really the ones that are wasting their vote and that they should instead vote for the "lesser of two goods".

Editor's Note: This in no way should be construed as a knock against Gary Johnson.

While I supported Ron Paul as the GOP candidate after Governor Johnson left the GOP race, he was my preferred choice from the beginning and even Ron Paul is on record as saying that Gary Johnson is wonderful and would have had his support has he decided against a run in 2012.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Gary Johnson At 3% In Latest CNN/ORC Nevada Poll

I can't imagine that the Johnson Campaign is too happy that Virgil Goode is polling ahead of them, but hopefully Gary Johnson's stop at UNLV on Wednesday as part of his college tour will garner some press and raise his profile in the Silver State.

CNN/ORC International survey

Q Suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party’s candidate, Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian party candidate and Virgil Goode, as the Independent American party candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Saturday, September 22, 2012

Gary Johnson, National Polls And The Election

Well, we're getting into the home stretch for November and while Gary Johnson may not win the Presidency (thanks to the media blackout and exclusion from many polls), we are able to gauge where he may finish in the race based on the national polls that have included him.

Now, I'm a firm believer that national polls are meaningless since that is not how the election works, but it does give a good idea of a candidates national level of support.

In September, three major polls have included Governor Johnson; Zogby (4.3%), CNN (4%) and Reason-Rupe (6%). Doing a little math, we see that Gary Johnson is polling at 4.8%, so we have a baseline.

Let's look at the two of the most notable 3rd party candidates since the 1980 election; John Anderson in 1980 and Ralph Nader in 2000. (I've omitted Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996 since neither campaign was typical and Perot had the money to compete on an even footing with the Republiocrats)

At this point of the 1980 campaign, according to Gallup, independent John Anderson was polling at 14% among likely voters. A few weeks later, he dropped to 9% and in the last pre-election poll was at 7%, ultimately finishing at 6.6% (5,719,850 votes) or a drop of 53% in his level of support. (It should be noted that in the 1980 election, Libertarian candidate Ed Clark received what is still the highest Presidential vote total for the party with 921,128 votes or 1%)

In 2000, at this point of of the race, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader was in the 2-3% range with likely voters, also according to Gallup. In October he peaked at 5% and in their last poll before the election sat at 4%, finishing with 2.74% (2,882,955 votes), which was within his September numbers.

So, what does this tell us about where Gary Johnson will finish?

My thought is that Governor Johnson will finish about where he is now with somewhere around 4%, giving him in the neighborhood of 5 million votes, based on 2008 turnout.

My reasoning for this is because in 1980 John Anderson, even with his appearance in the debate with Ronald Reagan (Carter sat out) and his high level of media coverage, he had pretty much the same base as Reagan and once it became clear that Reagan was the stronger "anybody but Carter" candidate, his supporters left him in droves and he had nowhere to go but down.

I see Gary Johnson's campaign being closer to Ralph Nader's. Nader had a fairly strong base among liberals who were unhappy with Clinton's move toward the center and saw a Gore Presidency as Clinton's third term. He was also excluded from the Presidential Debates and while he had a good measure of support within some popular circles, he did not get much lame stream media coverage.

I believe that Governor Johnson will maintain his base with those who are unhappy with the Republiocrat candidates as well as disaffected Ron Paul supporters. Johnson's fiscally conservative, socially tolerant message also resonates well with independent voters who want Leviathan out of both their wallets and bedrooms.

That's my call and I'm sticking with it. In 45 days you can come back and let me know if I am a genius or an idiot.

Friday, September 21, 2012

Gary Johnson At 6% In Reason-Rupe National Poll

Reason
A new national Reason-Rupe poll of likely voters finds President Barack Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney 48 percent to 43 percent in the presidential race. When undecided voters are asked which way they are leaning Obama’s lead over Romney grows to 52-45.

President Obama holds large advantages among women (53-37), African-Americans (92-2) and Hispanics (71-18). Fifty-two percent of likely voters view Obama favorably, while 45 view him unfavorably. In contrast, 49 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable view of Mitt Romney and 41 percent have a favorable view of him.

In a three-way presidential race, Obama drops to 49 percent among likely voters and Romney falls to 42 percent as the Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson gets six percent of support. Johnson is already on the presidential ballot in 47 states.

The Reason-Rupe poll conducted live interviews with 1,006 adults, including 787 likely voters, via landlines (602) and cell phones (404) from September 13-17, 2012. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percent, 4.3 percent for the likely voters sample. Princeton Survey Research Associates International executed the Reason-Rupe poll.
Q If the 2012 presidential election were held TODAY and the candidates were Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan the Republicans, and Gary Johnson and Jim Gray the Libertarians, for whom would you vote?

Barack Obama/Joe Biden...........49%
Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan.............40%
Gary Johnson/Jim Gray...............6%
Vote for someone else (VOL.)......1%
Would not vote"(VOL.)..less than 1%
Don't Know/Refused....................4%

Total......................................100%

Via Memeorandum

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Gary Johnson At 4% In Virginia In Latest Washington Post Poll

Washington Post

Q: (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) How about if the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were {(Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats), (Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans)}, {(Gary Johnson and James Gray, from the Libertarian Party), (Virgil Goode and Jim Clymer, from the Constitution Party), and (Jill Stein and Cheri Honkala, from the Green Party)}, for whom would you vote?

Obama............48%
Romney...........40%
Johnson...........4%
Goode.............2%
Stein.............1%
Other/No opinion..5%

Via Memeorandum

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Gary Johnson At 2% In New PPP Virginia Poll

Nice to see PPP Polls finally including all the major candidates. Their last Virginia poll, released in August, only included Virgil Goode as a 3rd part choice. He had 4% support then.

Q If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, Libertarian Gary Johnson,
Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode, and
Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who would
you vote for?


Barack Obama..... 49%
Mitt Romney...... 45%
Gary Johnson...... 2%
Virgil Goode...... 1%
Jill Stein........ 1%
Undecided......... 3%

I would have thought that Governor Johnson would do a little better, but he is only polling 4% with Independents, a segment where he has strongest appeal.

The good news is that Johnson is doing well with 18-29 year old respondents, 7%, and they are by far the most enthusiastic age group polled with 72% saying they are "very excited". This could be in part due to the "Ron Paul Effect" with Ron Paul's young supporters now turning to Governor Johnson as their liberty candidate.

Via Memeorandum

Friday, September 14, 2012

Latest From PPP Polls In Montana - Gary Johnson At 7%

PPP Polls

Q If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?


Mitt Romney..... 46%
Barack Obama.... 43%
Gary Johnson..... 7%
Undecided........ 5%

Down 1% from May but he is still staying respectable this late in the race.

And, Montana voters still don't know who Gary Johnson is, with 78% of respondents having no opinion of him. He fares best among Independents with only 70% having no opinion while he is more unknown with Democrats (83% no opinion) than Republicans (81% no opinion).

Independents are also where the former New Mexico Governor is strongest, getting 14% support. He also hurts Romney the most in this group as the former Massachusetts Governor loses 9% support versus 4% for Obama when Johnson is included in the matchup.

Yet again, this is another poll that shows that Gary Johnson will be a factor in this race as when he is included in a poll, he puts the race between Barry and Mittens within the margin of error.

Is it any wonder that the GOP is working so hard to keep him of the ballot and both parties do not want him in the debates?

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

New York Times Calls Gary Johnson A "Crucial Factor" In 2012 Race

NYT
There is one factor in the campaign that has yet to get much attention but could influence the outcome: third-party candidacies in many states, most notably that of former Gov. Gary Johnson of New Mexico, the Libertarian Party’s presidential nominee.

Mr. Johnson, who argued for free markets, fewer wars and the legalization of marijuana during his brief run for the 2012 Republican nomination, hardly shows up in polls. But he is on the ballot in more than three dozen states and is trying for more.

Mr. Johnson shares some of the cross-party appeal of Representative Ron Paul of Texas, who complimented him publicly last week. Advisers said Mr. Johnson’s potential for cutting into Mr. Romney’s support was greatest in Florida, where Mr. Romney is basically tied with Mr. Obama, but could also have an impact in Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

They said Mr. Johnson’s potential to eat into Mr. Obama’s support was greatest in Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin.

Republican officials have already tried to challenge Mr. Johnson’s place on the ballot or are trying to in states including Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Many of the challenges have failed — courts recently rejected efforts to throw him off the ballot in Virginia — and Roger Stone, a Republican Party veteran who is advising Mr. Johnson, said he was optimistic that Mr. Johnson would qualify in all 50 states.

Gravis Marketing/Capitol Correspondent Poll - Gary Johnson At 4.5% In Ohio

4.5% in an important swing state for Gary Johnson, not bad.

What these polls are all telling us is that even with the mediot blackout the former New Mexico Governor is going to have an impact on the 2012 race for the White House.

Is it any wonder that Mittens and the GOP had thoughts to keep him off the ballot in the Buckeye State?

Milquetoast Mitt needs every vote that he can muster in what should have been a can't-lose race for the GOP, but "Obama-lite" Romney is just another in the line of wet shit sandwiches from the Republican elite.

Gravis Marketing/Capitol Correspondent Poll