Gary Johnson At 3% In Final CNN/ORC National Poll

Hot off the interwebz, the latest CNN/ORC Poll has Gary Johnson at 3% among registered voters and 2% among likely voters.

Now while this would fall short of the 5% that the former New Mexico Governor is hoping for, if it holds it would mean somewhere north of 2.5 million votes for the Libertarian Party candidate.

Sadly, because of the media blackout on the Johnson campaign, most Americans will probably hear Gary Johnson's name for the first time on election night when the results are tallied. Little did they know that there was an actual fiscally conservative, socially tolerant candidate on the ballot that will turn out to be the X Factor in the election.

Q Suppose that the Presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party's candidate, Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian party candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green party candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for? (IF UNSURE) As of today, who do you lean more toward? (RANDOM ORDER)

Likely Voters Obama Romney Johnson Stein None No Opinion Nov 2-4, 2012 48% 48% 2% 1% * 1% Sept 28-30, 2012 47% 44% 4% 3% 1% 1% Sept 7-9, 2012 51% 43% 3% 1% 1% 1%
Registered Voters Obama Romney Johnson Stein None No Opinion Nov 2-4, 2012 48% 46% 3% 1% 1% 1% Sept 28-30, 2012 47% 43% 4% 3% 2% * Sept 7-9, 2012 50% 41% 4% 2% 1% *

Via Memeorandum

Gary Johnson At 3% In Latest CNN/ORC Florida Poll

CNN/ORC Poll

Q Suppose that the Presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party's candidate, Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian party candidate, Jill Stein as the Green party candidate and Virgil Goode as the Constitution Party candidate who would you be more likely to vote for? - (IF UNSURE) As of today, who do you lean more toward? (RANDOM ORDER)

October 17-18 Obama Romney Johnson Stein Goode None No Opinion Likely Voters 47% 48% 2% * 1% * * Registered Voters 49% 42% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2%
* less than 1%

Gary Johnson At 3% In Arizona In New Behavior Research Center/Rocky Mountain Poll

In yet another state, Gary Johnson is playing a major role in the outcome in the Presidential race. With their respective bases all but sewn up, Obama and Romney are needing the independent vote but in this current Arizona poll, Governor Johnson is polling at 7%, with 18% still undecided.

This poll shows that there is even more room for Gary Johnson to grow his vote total in the Grand Canyon State as a demographic groups show at least 10% are still undecided.

Given the amount of media that both Obama and Romney receive, for this many people to have not made up there minds with less than 30 days until the election, Gov Johnson could win some of these votes.

Behavior Research Center/Rocky Mountain Poll

Q If the election for President of the United States were being held today and the candidates were (ROTATE SEQUENCE) Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, Green Party Jill Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson which one would you vote for?

October 4-10, 2012 Obama Romney Johnson Stein Not Sure Likely Voters 42% 40% 3% 2% 13% Registered Voters 44% 42% 3% 1% 10%

Gary Johnson Steady At 4% In Latest CNN National Poll

Just in from CNN is the latest CNN/ORC national poll where Gary Johnson is now polling at 4% among likely voters nationwide.

Q Suppose that the Presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party's candidate, Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian party candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green party candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for? (RANDOM ORDER)

Likely Voters Obama Romney Johnson Stein None No Opinion Sept 28-30, 2012 47% 44% 4% 3% 1% 1% Sept 7-9, 2012 51% 43% 3% 1% 1% *
Registered Voters Obama Romney Johnson Stein None No Opinion Sept 28-30, 2012 47% 43% 4% 3% 2% * Sept 7-9, 2012 50% 41% 4% 2% 1% *

A lot to like here for the Johnson campaign who gained a 1% increase among likely voters from the CNN/ORC poll earlier this month.

Overall he is up with Liberals (+5%), Democrats(+1%) and Independents (+1%), while the only downturn is among Moderates (-1%). He remains steady among Republicans and Conservatives.

[The real head scratcher in all the numbers is that Governor Johnson is polling higher than Green Party candidate Jill Stein with Liberals (5% versus 3%) while she is polling better among likely GOP voters (3% versus 2%) than the fiscally conservative former New Mexico Governor. You would think it would be the other way around.]

This poll shows that without a doubt, Gary Johnson's message is getting out there and it is being well received. At a point when 3rd party candidates start to trail off, Governor Johnson is actually gaining ground.

Just imagine where he would be right now if the mediots didn't black him out and he was in the debates. There is no doubt in my mind that if people had a chance to hear his message sooner, he would would be up in the 15-20% range right now, with a chance to win in the final month.

But there is no use dwelling in the past. The campaign must push forward and do the best that it can in the time remaining.

Via Memeorandum

Gary Johnson, National Polls And The Election

Well, we're getting into the home stretch for November and while Gary Johnson may not win the Presidency (thanks to the media blackout and exclusion from many polls), we are able to gauge where he may finish in the race based on the national polls that have included him.

Now, I'm a firm believer that national polls are meaningless since that is not how the election works, but it does give a good idea of a candidates national level of support.

In September, three major polls have included Governor Johnson; Zogby (4.3%), CNN (4%) and Reason-Rupe (6%). Doing a little math, we see that Gary Johnson is polling at 4.8%, so we have a baseline.

Let's look at the two of the most notable 3rd party candidates since the 1980 election; John Anderson in 1980 and Ralph Nader in 2000. (I've omitted Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996 since neither campaign was typical and Perot had the money to compete on an even footing with the Republiocrats)

At this point of the 1980 campaign, according to Gallup, independent John Anderson was polling at 14% among likely voters. A few weeks later, he dropped to 9% and in the last pre-election poll was at 7%, ultimately finishing at 6.6% (5,719,850 votes) or a drop of 53% in his level of support. (It should be noted that in the 1980 election, Libertarian candidate Ed Clark received what is still the highest Presidential vote total for the party with 921,128 votes or 1%)

In 2000, at this point of of the race, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader was in the 2-3% range with likely voters, also according to Gallup. In October he peaked at 5% and in their last poll before the election sat at 4%, finishing with 2.74% (2,882,955 votes), which was within his September numbers.

So, what does this tell us about where Gary Johnson will finish?

My thought is that Governor Johnson will finish about where he is now with somewhere around 4%, giving him in the neighborhood of 5 million votes, based on 2008 turnout.

My reasoning for this is because in 1980 John Anderson, even with his appearance in the debate with Ronald Reagan (Carter sat out) and his high level of media coverage, he had pretty much the same base as Reagan and once it became clear that Reagan was the stronger "anybody but Carter" candidate, his supporters left him in droves and he had nowhere to go but down.

I see Gary Johnson's campaign being closer to Ralph Nader's. Nader had a fairly strong base among liberals who were unhappy with Clinton's move toward the center and saw a Gore Presidency as Clinton's third term. He was also excluded from the Presidential Debates and while he had a good measure of support within some popular circles, he did not get much lame stream media coverage.

I believe that Governor Johnson will maintain his base with those who are unhappy with the Republiocrat candidates as well as disaffected Ron Paul supporters. Johnson's fiscally conservative, socially tolerant message also resonates well with independent voters who want Leviathan out of both their wallets and bedrooms.

That's my call and I'm sticking with it. In 45 days you can come back and let me know if I am a genius or an idiot.

Gary Johnson At 4% In New CNN National Poll

Yes, you are reading that right, CNN actually included Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, along with the Green Party's Jill Stein, in their latest national poll.

Granted they omitted both 3rd party candidates from the accompanying story, but you have to crawl before you can walk and this is definitely a good start.

[The cynic in me knows that the reasoning behind this is that CNN knew they would poll low and the Commission on Presidential Debates can point to it as justification to exclude 3rd Party candidates from the debates.]

Q Suppose that the Presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party's candidate, Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian party candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green party candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for? (RANDOM ORDER)

Sept. 7-9, 2012 Obama Romney Johnson Stein None No Opinion Likely Voters 51% 43% 3% 1% 1% 1% Registered Voters 50% 41% 4% 2% 1% *

Of course, national polls are worthless because that is not the way the Electoral College works.

That said, the most interesting cross tab in the CNN poll is that when Gary Johnson is included he pulls 9% among likely Independent voters. This kills Romney's support with this group from 54% head to head with Obama to 46% in the 4 way. Obama is at 40% in both matchups.

Another place where Governor Johnson hurts Romney is among likely moderate voters. Head to head against Obama, Romney has 37% support. When Gary Johnson is added to the mix, his 6% drops the former Massachusetts Governor down to 32%; while the President holds steady at 59% in both.

With the two major party candidates being secure among their respective bases, Obama with Democrats and liberals and Romney with Republicans and conservatives, this race is going to be won or lost in the middle.

But what lies in the middle is roughly 30% of the electorate and this group is typically underrepresented in most polling.

With this in mind, is it any wonder that the Republiocrats do not want Gary Johnson in the debates? This is also the reason that the GOP is working so hard to challenge Gary Johnson's ballot status, especially in key swing states that Romney must win to get elected.

The establishment could be in for a big surprise come election day when Gary Johnson could out-perform his poll numbers by a large margin. This will be especially true if he manages to get any semblance of fair media coverage.

The middle is fed up with the partisan BS and could be just angry enough to pull the lever on November 6th for Gary Johnson.

Just you wait and see.

Via Memeorandum

Roger Stone: Why Scott Rasmussen Is Wrong To Exclude Gary Johnson From His Polls

The Stone Zone

Pollster Scott Rasmussen's explanation as to why he is not including Governor Gary Johnson in his Presidential polling reminds me somewhat of the Mad Hatter in Alice in Wonderland. Nothing Rasmussen says makes any sense.

A poll which does not test all the candidates who are on the ballot is by definition unprofessional, unscientific, flawed and inaccurate.

Rasmussen says, "We have concluded that the most accurate measure of the Obama - Romney race is to leave Johnson out of the mix". Huh?

As a political scientist clearly Rasmussen knows it is impossible for Johnson, who will be on the ballot in all 50 states, to get zero votes, thus any measure of the electorate that does not include him will be incorrect.

Rasmussen also defends himself by saying that it is more accurate to ask the voters if they are voting for Romney, Obama or "some other candidate" even though in the vast majority of states Johnson is the only "other candidate" on the ballot.

Rasmussen goes on further to insist that those voters who chose "some other candidate" in his polls opted to drift back to the major parties when asked if they could change their mind. Not surprising in view of the fact that the Pollster doesn't mention the "other candidates" name.

The assertion that 3rd party candidacies fade as the election approached was certainly true - before the full development of the Internet as a communications tool. The demassification of communications in our culture has given way to greater independence by voters and less reliance and faith in political parties.

Governor Johnson is owed substantial public funds from the Federal Election Commission and as his campaign fundraising continues to improve it is safe to say that he will have the resources to communicate in the swing states in the fall.

In 2000, Pollsters like Scott Rasmussen failed to include Ralph Nader in their polling in Florida. Thus, they failed to see the votes Nader drained from Al Gore. Not polling the name of all candidates on the ballot is by a pollster is malpractice.