Townhall - Johnson Now Two Percentage Points Away From National Debates

Townhall

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has hit his highest ranking in the polls.

This CNN poll Johnson polled at 13 percent with Clinton at 42, Trump at 37, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at five percent.

In order to compete in national debates during the general election, a candidate needs an average of 15 percent in national polls.

With growing dissatisfaction for Clinton and Trump, Gary Johnson now has record numbers for a Libertarian ticket.
Could Gary be the unexpected winner in this election? Some say "no way" - But many also said there was "no way" Donald Trump would be the Republican Presidential nominee.

Crazier things have happened.

Gary Johnson At 3% In Latest CNN/ORC Nevada Poll

I can't imagine that the Johnson Campaign is too happy that Virgil Goode is polling ahead of them, but hopefully Gary Johnson's stop at UNLV on Wednesday as part of his college tour will garner some press and raise his profile in the Silver State.

CNN/ORC International survey

Q Suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party’s candidate, Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian party candidate and Virgil Goode, as the Independent American party candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Sept. 7-9, 2012 Obama Romney Goode Johnson None No Opinion Likely Voters 47% 44% 4% 3% 1% 1% Registered Voters 48% 41% 5% 3% 2% 1

Gary Johnson, National Polls And The Election

Well, we're getting into the home stretch for November and while Gary Johnson may not win the Presidency (thanks to the media blackout and exclusion from many polls), we are able to gauge where he may finish in the race based on the national polls that have included him.

Now, I'm a firm believer that national polls are meaningless since that is not how the election works, but it does give a good idea of a candidates national level of support.

In September, three major polls have included Governor Johnson; Zogby (4.3%), CNN (4%) and Reason-Rupe (6%). Doing a little math, we see that Gary Johnson is polling at 4.8%, so we have a baseline.

Let's look at the two of the most notable 3rd party candidates since the 1980 election; John Anderson in 1980 and Ralph Nader in 2000. (I've omitted Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996 since neither campaign was typical and Perot had the money to compete on an even footing with the Republiocrats)

At this point of the 1980 campaign, according to Gallup, independent John Anderson was polling at 14% among likely voters. A few weeks later, he dropped to 9% and in the last pre-election poll was at 7%, ultimately finishing at 6.6% (5,719,850 votes) or a drop of 53% in his level of support. (It should be noted that in the 1980 election, Libertarian candidate Ed Clark received what is still the highest Presidential vote total for the party with 921,128 votes or 1%)

In 2000, at this point of of the race, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader was in the 2-3% range with likely voters, also according to Gallup. In October he peaked at 5% and in their last poll before the election sat at 4%, finishing with 2.74% (2,882,955 votes), which was within his September numbers.

So, what does this tell us about where Gary Johnson will finish?

My thought is that Governor Johnson will finish about where he is now with somewhere around 4%, giving him in the neighborhood of 5 million votes, based on 2008 turnout.

My reasoning for this is because in 1980 John Anderson, even with his appearance in the debate with Ronald Reagan (Carter sat out) and his high level of media coverage, he had pretty much the same base as Reagan and once it became clear that Reagan was the stronger "anybody but Carter" candidate, his supporters left him in droves and he had nowhere to go but down.

I see Gary Johnson's campaign being closer to Ralph Nader's. Nader had a fairly strong base among liberals who were unhappy with Clinton's move toward the center and saw a Gore Presidency as Clinton's third term. He was also excluded from the Presidential Debates and while he had a good measure of support within some popular circles, he did not get much lame stream media coverage.

I believe that Governor Johnson will maintain his base with those who are unhappy with the Republiocrat candidates as well as disaffected Ron Paul supporters. Johnson's fiscally conservative, socially tolerant message also resonates well with independent voters who want Leviathan out of both their wallets and bedrooms.

That's my call and I'm sticking with it. In 45 days you can come back and let me know if I am a genius or an idiot.