Gary Johnson Grassroots Blog

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Johnson wins election if based on issues

What if people voted on what candidate aligned with them most closely on issues and not based on who the media gatekeepers thinks you should vote for? 

Here’s what the election map would look like....

The map is created off the results of over 600,000 quiz takers on the iSideWith site. Users answer 36 questions that cover a range of issues from social, environment, science, foreign policy, domestic policy, immigration, the economy, and healthcare. Their answers are matched up with the candidates answers and then they are shown who they align most closely with.

iSideWith generates state by state breakdowns so you can see which state supports which candidate. I tabulated the data and assigned the electoral votes to the winner of each state. iSideWith included a couple candidates in their questionnaire who will only be on the ballot in a handful of states so I excluded them, but I did include the Constitution, Democrat, Green, Libertarian, and Republican candidates.


The Results

Barack Obama, as the incumbent, wins a total of 217 electoral votes in 16 states. He wins the states you’d expect him to win - the west coast, north east and a few in the great lakes region.

Jill Stein (Green Party) beats out Obama in Vermont and Hawaii which are two of the most left leaning states and wins a total of 7 electoral votes.

Mitt Romney only wins 4 states - Utah, Alaska, South Dakota, and Alabama - and receives 21 votes.

Virgil Goode’s (Constitution Party) best showing was 3rd place in South Dakota, but generally placed in the back of the pack taking sixth in 43 states.

Ron Paul wins 3 states - Arizona, Wyoming, and North Dakota, but racked up the most second place finishes with 27. Paul received 17 electoral votes.

Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party) claims the title of President by collecting enough electoral votes to put him in the White House with 284 votes (270 is the magic number to win the presidency) by winning 28 states


My Thoughts


  1. These results are what I would expect if the Commission of Presidential Debate gate keepers were to let Johnson into the debates, but as of right now they have set an arbitrary 15% threshold which instituted after Ross Perot almost upset the old party system when he was included in the debates when he was only polling at 7%. The debate appearances shot Perot up to 38% in the polls. Johnson would very likely follow Perot’s trajectory if Johnson was included in the general election debates.
  2. When results are based on matching voters to candidates on issues you end up with minor parties winning some electoral votes because there is no wasted vote syndrome to deal with. You might expect a similar sort of result with alternative voting methods such as Ranked Choice Voting or Approval Voting with fully informed voters
  3. The final question comes down to: Do we want a qualified candidate leading the country who 81.3% of question respondents agree with or someone with only 75% or 65% agreement?

Here is the spreadsheet with the calculations of the results based on iSideWith.com’s data as of July 18, 2012, at approximately 8PM ET.

[Note: updated map to fix some errors. ME and NV were marked as Obama winning, but Johnson was winner. WY was a tie for first with Paul/Johnson and IA was a tie for first with Obama/Johnson so these states are striped.]

39 comments:

  1. I love the iSideWith quiz. I got 98% agreement with GJ, 96% with Paul, 76% with Romney and 36% with Obama. The issues are with Gary Johnson. Too bad the system is not.

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    Replies
    1. The system is a wrong as you keep thinking like that

      Delete
  2. Great post Hardy!

    To all the naysayers, Gary Johnson can win because he truly represents what the American people believe.

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  3. Damn, I wish I found this blog before I did all that work making that ugly map on paint.

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  4. Please make a donation to Johnson right now! We just passed 1000 donors for the latest fund raiser. http://www.garyjohnson2012.com

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  5. I'm 96% Ron Paul and 92% Gary Johnson. I've donated a lot to the Ron Paul campaign and so I want to see this through until Tampa. If he's not the Republican nominee (pigs don't fly, either) then I'm going to become a frequent donor to Magic Johnson.

    I think Gary Johnson is a superhero and I can't believe we haven't been told more about him. He deserves so much better.

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    Replies
    1. POLLS FROM 10 months ago that I had saved some say there not important but I think they expose a truth of the dirty rotten lies about WHAT HAPPENED?
      THEY COULD OVIOUSLY SEE WHOSE IN FIRST PLACE
      And whose SECOND they ran a cainwreck for a while
      now they gotta Mitt the megalomaniac
      Please noticed GaryJohnson was disincluded when he had better percents than *(7)people:Romney,Cain,Newt, Perry,Santorum,Bachmann,Huntsman

      September 22, 2011 THERE OWN POLL NUMBERS
      Ron Paul 56.94%
      Gary Johnson 12.8%
      Romney 10.57%
      Cain 7.88%
      Newt 4.82%
      Perry 3.79%
      Santorum 1.36%
      Bachmann 1.25%
      Huntsman 0.6%

      TWO FRONT RUNNERS But the Elite News has done American People a disservice by LYING CHEATING ON POLLS Towards RP & GJ & to KEEP SILENT
      ABOUT WHO WE HAVE WANTED TO BE OUR PRESIDENT FROM THE BEGINNING

      WE NEED TO KEEP THE NEWS SHUT OFF .. CUZ THEY ARE VERY DISHONEST

      I was at CNN Headquarters Protest it went GOOD

      Was a real booster so dont Let the constant lying get you down be ENCOURAGED;

      SPREAD THE WORD OF LIBERTY
      GO GARY JOHNSON ON THE BALLOT ALL 50 States
      thanks for allowing me to voice my opinion on the matter

      Delete
  6. Now the American people need to do two things:
    1. Stop being sheep
    2. Vote their consciences, not the "lesser of two evils"

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  7. plan A: vote Gary Johnson
    plan B: if he loses, find another country where people value freedom, because it obviously ain't here. while I believe in fighting for freedom, I'm not going to do so where most people don't want it and would string me up as one of the bad guys.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. jcomeau_ictx, people are moving en mass to the Live Free or Die state as part of the Free State Project. It was ranked the freest state in 2009, 2011 and has gained a lot of freedom since then.
      http://freestateproject.org/101Reasons

      Delete
  8. We got to ride this train to Washington. Country after country has changed drastically through social media, it can happen here too at the polls.

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  9. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Keith. Fixed the map and double checked things. I also added in stripes for states that had ties for first.

      Delete
  10. Great article! You need to blast a copy of this to all the polling companies and major media.

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  11. Great quiz! Unfortunately most people will take the quiz and vote down the ole 2 party line.

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  12. As much as I'd like GJ to win here's the problem....who takes this quiz? GJ fans. Who doesn't take online quizes? The poor, the uneducated (who vote democrat), and the elderly (who vote republican). Unfortunately, this isn't an accurate sampling of those who will vote in November and how they will vote. Too bad...

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    Replies
    1. The point of the result of this quiz is what happens if a polling company were to take the 36 questions and ask a statistically random sample and calculate the winner based on the results of the issues and not who they think they want to vote for because the media's been telling them who they need to vote for.

      Delete
  13. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-selection_bias

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  14. There are now almost one million participants on isidewith.com. Are you going to update this graph periodically? How did you get at the raw data? All I could see were the maps and many candidates had similar ratings in the same state.

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  15. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  16. There is a fallacy in the stats. The people who filled out the questionnaire weren't a random subset of the general population but a self selected, probably largely liberal, subset.

    A control question about which candidate the person filling out the questionnaire prior filling it out would help to control for some of this bias, but not all of it.

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    Replies
    1. The more people who take the quiz the closer the results should come to reflecting the population at large. Right now information about the site seems to be spreading primarily through social media and we all know that we can expect a libertarian bias there just because its a younger crowd.

      Delete
  17. How did you get the data for Alaska and Hawaii? They don't appear on the isidewith map.

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  18. Do you think Gary is legit? Or just like the rest? http://ow.ly/cwZYD

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  19. Here's the thing isidewith is a voluntary survey which means there's a certain selection bias. All it proves it Libertarian minded people are more likely to visit the website where the test is hosted. It is a nice talking point though.

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  20. It would be nice if everyone voted for they actually sided with in this instance. I know I am, screw voting for "who has the better chance of winning". I am voting for who stands for what I personally believe in! Gary Johnson 2012!

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  21. Now that we're onto Sept, and the quiz has much higher numbers, any chance of an update on the map? I disagree that it is all young liberals taking the quiz. Media outlets (where the site has mostly been promoted) is not just the 18-35 demographic. Granted, there are less users over 50 yes old, but it does cover the spectrum of political vows.

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  22. You should submit this to John Stossel, Ben Swann, etc, they could do a story on this.

    ReplyDelete
  23. http://www.lp.org/news/press-releases/an-open-letter-to-the-commission-on-presidential-debates

    http://www.isidewith.com/
    DOWN with Duopoly! NO More War!

    Meet Libertarian Presidential Candidate
    Gary Johnson

    *Socially Accepting
    *Fiscally Fierce

    http://www.garyjohnson2012.com/issue

    Has everyone signed this petition, so Johnson can get INTO the same national polls as O and R, and when his 6% rises to 15%, he can participate in the CPD debates? Please share it, confirm 6 signatures and requested those passing it on do the same. Also, per the signed letter about the petition, I left voice-mail for Carla Howell - Executive Director @202-333-0008, to confirm if this will be updated today and how often going foward. LET FREEDOM RING!!!

    26,192 signatures received is 6% as of 10/1/12. WE NEED 10% to get SAME national poll sampling as Obama/Romney and then 15% for the CPD debate.
    HELP US BEAT THE DEADLINES BELOW =)

    VP
    October 11, Thursday — 9-10:30 p.m. EDT
    Topic: foreign and domestic policy

    Presidential
    October 16, Tuesday — 9:00-10:30 p.m. EDT
    Topic: foreign and domestic policy

    October 22, Monday — 9:00-10:30 p.m. EDT
    Topic: foreign policy

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  24. ISideWith is not a scientific poll. Libertarians may be more likely to take it, for example. Second, it seems that the blue states and most of the swing states (OH, FL, VA, ME, PA, WI, among others) now side with Barack Obama over Gary Johnson, thus making him the clear winner.

    Will you take this as proof that GJ would not win? Probably not (and correctly so - just as you shouldn't take these earlier results as proof either).

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    Replies
    1. The point is that the people who vote do not know that they usually align with the the libertarian parties' beliefs because they are unaware we exist. Libertarians believe in freedoms that the other candidates do not offer. Civil liberties are what make this country great for those living here. Johnson has the highest rating from the aclu. He is by far the best candidate for the job that nobody even knows about. If he were in the debates millions of Republican and Democratic party supporters would realize why he is the best choice. The reason I believe the LP is the best choice is because it makes social issues a non-issue and makes the election solely about foreign and fiscal policy and gives americans the rights and freedoms we are entitled to. Educating the public about what issues each candidate stands for is very important. Please agree that more people should not necessarily vote based solely on a quiz but include it as a factor in their decision. I think that having a healthy and non-biased source for political information is crucial in choosing the candidate that fits your beliefs the most. Results from the quiz are, as you articulated, not indicative of who would win the general election but I do think you shouldn't discourage others from using data to decide either. Thank you for your thoughts and thank you for voting my friend. I'm not trying to be arrogant just let others decide for themselves. We just want the chance other parties get because the general public does not hear about us on the news in tv, magazines, blogs, or radio.

      Delete
  25. not scientific and libertarians are disproportionately vocal online.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As opposed to Sharpton, Beck, Maddow, and Hannity. Garbage on mainstream television and radio makes the Green and Libertarian party's supporters take to other medias to speak our opinions. Read the Huff Post or Daily Caller lately? Both in the tank for top two parties. Please stop saying we are more vocal. Rep n Dem voices are much louder and heard by millions more online and in all other medias. Disproportionate, please. (Drops mic)

      Delete
  26. Would love to see this updated with the numbers on isidewith.com as of this past third party debate from last week!

    ReplyDelete
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