Pollster Scott Rasmussen's explanation as to why he is not including Governor Gary Johnson in his Presidential polling reminds me somewhat of the Mad Hatter in Alice in Wonderland. Nothing Rasmussen says makes any sense.
A poll which does not test all the candidates who are on the ballot is by definition unprofessional, unscientific, flawed and inaccurate.
Rasmussen says, "We have concluded that the most accurate measure of the Obama - Romney race is to leave Johnson out of the mix". Huh?
As a political scientist clearly Rasmussen knows it is impossible for Johnson, who will be on the ballot in all 50 states, to get zero votes, thus any measure of the electorate that does not include him will be incorrect.
Rasmussen also defends himself by saying that it is more accurate to ask the voters if they are voting for Romney, Obama or "some other candidate" even though in the vast majority of states Johnson is the only "other candidate" on the ballot.
Rasmussen goes on further to insist that those voters who chose "some other candidate" in his polls opted to drift back to the major parties when asked if they could change their mind. Not surprising in view of the fact that the Pollster doesn't mention the "other candidates" name.
The assertion that 3rd party candidacies fade as the election approached was certainly true - before the full development of the Internet as a communications tool. The demassification of communications in our culture has given way to greater independence by voters and less reliance and faith in political parties.
Governor Johnson is owed substantial public funds from the Federal Election Commission and as his campaign fundraising continues to improve it is safe to say that he will have the resources to communicate in the swing states in the fall.
In 2000, Pollsters like Scott Rasmussen failed to include Ralph Nader in their polling in Florida. Thus, they failed to see the votes Nader drained from Al Gore. Not polling the name of all candidates on the ballot is by a pollster is malpractice.
Friday, August 17, 2012
Roger Stone: Why Scott Rasmussen Is Wrong To Exclude Gary Johnson From His Polls
The Stone Zone