But is this the best course of action?
Gary Johnson's voice is too important to be silenced on the national level but due to factors, some of his own making, he has failed to gain traction with the national electorate. A run on the LP ticket is, in my opinion, a quixotic fantasy for Gov Johnson and while it may influence the Presidential race somewhat and give him an opportunity to be on the same stage as Obama and the GOP nominee during the debates, I don't see his chances of winning in the General Election any better than they were in the GOP primaries.
In the past, Gov Johnson has ruled out a run for retiring NM Senator Jeff Bingaman's seat (much in the same way he ruled out jumping to the LP, it should be mentioned) stating that he does not believe in a Senator's ability to make a difference.
That is all well and good but we have seen that a limited-government, pro-liberty Senator can make a difference and that man, Rand Paul, needs all the allies he can get.
Gary Johnson also has a chance to actually win the NM Senate seat. While the latest PPP poll shows that he would have some ground to make up against current GOP frontrunner and favorite Rep Heather Wilson who leads the former Governor by a 42-31% margin, remember that he is not even campaigning for the seat while Wilson is.
But that's the bad news. Looking deeper at the PPP numbers, Johnson has 45/39 favorable/unfavorable opinion by those polled while Wilson is almost the opposite at 37/46.
Better still, when compared to Democratic frontrunners Rep Martin Heinrich and State Auditor Hector Balderas (Heinrich leads Balderas 47-30), Gov Johnson is tied with Heinrich at 43% and beating Balderas 44-38. Meanwhile, Rep Wilson trails Heinrich 47-40 and is tied with Balderas at 43%.
As you can see, this race is Gary Johnson's for the taking. He's not even campaigning for the spot and is still well positioned to win.
Gov Johnson, I beg you, stop tilting at windmills and take what you are being given. Six years of Gary Johnson in the Senate is far better than nothing.
Agreed. Gary Johnson would make a fantastic senator and give voice to the "blue state libertarians" in the same way that Rand Paul gives voice to "red state libertarians." I really hope he considers running for at least one term.
ReplyDeleteIt would also be great to see him run for President as a Libertarian. While he'd easily be their most credible candidate ever, there's no way the establishment will let him debate Obama. I'd love to see him give it a shot, but I'd rather see him in the Senate -- between our fiscal peril and threats to civil liberties, the country really needs him right now.
Interestingly, a new PPP poll shows a third party Johnson Presidential campaign getting 23% in New Mexico against Obama/Romney, taking equally from his Dem/Rep opponents. If he's intent on leaving the GOP (can't blame him, the way he's been treated), he'd have a good chance at winning the NM Senate seat as the first Libertarian elected to the US Congress. While I don't think this specific scenario has been polled, his popularity with independents makes this a serious consideration (only Republicans can vote in New Mexico's GOP primary) and perhaps the easiest path to victory.