First we need their criteria:
The Union Leader and its partners invited every potential candidate who met any one of three standards:
An average of at least 2.00 percent in at least three national polls released in April by ABC, AP, Bloomberg, CBS, CNN, FOX, Gallup, Los Angeles Times, Marist, McClatchy, NBC, Newsweek, Pew, Quinnipiac, Reuters, USA Today or Time.
An average of at least 2.00 percent in at least three national polls released in May by any of those organizations.
An average of at least 2.00 percent in polls of New Hampshire voters conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and released in May.
Let's take the second criteria since Johnson only needs to meet one of the three to qualify and debate sponsor CNN didn't include him in their April polling.
CNN's Opinion Research Corporation Poll May 24-26
Johnson only polls at 1% if we use CNN's poll question that includes the unlikely and undeclared candidates of Giuliani, Palin, and Bachmann. Johnson is the second choice for 2% of respondents, and when Giuliani and Palin are removed from the list of candidates then Johnson is at 2%.
Gallup Poll May 20-24th
A similar story plays out in Gallup's poll. Johnson is at 2% when undeclared candidates Palin and Bachmann are included, but when excluding Palin then Johnson is at 3%.
The last poll is the most difficult because of the polling firms listed as acceptable I couldn't find polls from most of them and the polls from AP didn't include Johnson.
Quinnipiac had a poll from April 26-May 1 with Johnson at 1% which included Huckabee and Palin. If we count this as a May poll then that would round out the criteria of being in 3 national polls. [Added: thanks to Kreationz commenting and pointing this one out.]
There were two respected polling firms that listed Johnson in May:
Harris Interactive has him at 1% with a poll including Palin, Bachmann, and Guiliani.
Zogby International has him at 1% with Palin, Christie, and Bachmann in the poll.
Let's assume Johnson only polls at 1% from any of these other polling agencies listed. This still gives Johnson an average of 2% in three polls in May. For the math challenged (3% + 2% + 1%) / 3 = 2%.
Conclusion
By using the debate sponsors' own objective criteria Johnson does average at 2% in at least three polls in May. The only question is why are they choosing to exclude one of the most qualified people running for president?
Wonder how they will spin the truth?
ReplyDeleteHere's the Quinnipiac Poll with Johnson @ 1% on April 26 - May 1. (How do you count which month?) http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1595
ReplyDelete1% for Fox in April: http://www.scribd.com/full/54158725?access_key=key-26pckzzekc16xems5954
ReplyDeleteI can't find another of the listed polls that actually includes him. Hard to be a choice if he isn't included...
ReplyDeleteSomeone privately messages me about them only including polls where all candidates are included.
ReplyDeleteI do think my polls picked qualify as "all candidates" included even though they do include some non-candidates (Bachmann) and leave out some candidates (Krager). I'm going to assume the reasoning for saying all candidates is so you don't have a poll where it is Republican X versus Obama where just about any 1 on 1 poll against Obama the Republican candidate will poll at least 30%.
Secondly, to be a candidate you need to take an affirmative step to be a candidate. As we saw with Trump going around to the media outlets just to pump up ratings for his show, until a person actually files to be a candidate or files to form an exploratory committee you aren't a candidate for president. This was one of the criteria FOX used in their first debate which was why you saw exploratory committees and announcements happening a week or two prior to the FOX debate.
If this were a fair process, Gary Johnson would have been invited. When CNN and the Union Leader are ignoring their own objective criteria, it’s obvious that they’re just singling him out.
ReplyDeleteThe Quinnipiac poll counts as a May poll, because it was released May 4th, and the criteria says that a May poll is a poll "RELEASED" during May. ;)
ReplyDeleteBased on the response that Steve Funk received to his email (posted on the johnson 2012 site), it seems to me that they are quite justified in not including Johnson. in the original polls (even if you remove those that have officially withdrawn) he does not meet the 2% requirement.
ReplyDeleteJohnson only meets the 2% requirement using these polls when you remove palin from the mix, and she has not said one way or another if she was running or not to my knowledge, but is effectively roaming around the country campaigning.
It's a valiant effort, but by letter of the requirement he did not qualify and yelling scandal or conspiracy does not change this.
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteYou could put several "potential candidates" in the polls. Why not Perry, Christie, every other republican governor and US Senator in the country into the poll. Even Colbert has said he's thought of running again.
Palin is simply not a candidate. To be a candidate you either need to announce or have formed an exploratory committee.
This was one of the requirements FOX used in the first debate which is why several candidates either announced or formed exploratory committees so they could appear in the first debate.
If Palin wants to see where she might be if she runs then she can commission her own polls, but pollsters should be running polls of the announced candidates and exploratory candidates not whom the pollster thinks has high enough name recognition will be "news" if they poll high.
- Hardy
Whether Palin should have been included or not is beside the point. CNN and Gallup both chose to publish polls without her. CNN committed to recognizing ALL polls conducted by these two organizations. So they must recognize these polls, whether they like it or not. Unless they re-write the criteria they’ve committed to, Gary Johnson qualified for the debate. It's really that simple.
ReplyDeleteHardy, wether palin is a candidate or not is a moot point. Her name was included in the original poll and she got a large percentage of the vote. Also, FOX is not running this debate, so the criteria they used to determine who could participate is irrelevant. Even the point of if palin should have been included is irrelavent to this discussion truth be told. She WAS included, and has not officially said she was not running so the votes she got should count towards her in those polls.
ReplyDeleteCouves, they didn't publish a new poll without her. they simply removed her votes and redistributed them to their second choices to get an idea where the official candidates might stand if the vote was held today. the *original* poll seems to be what they are looking at for the decision and it appears to be the basis behind not including johnson in the debate.